Inflation

Inflation

Inflation is an important part of the economic environment (see Chapter 8)
because of its effect on interest rates, exchange rates, the cost of living, and
general confidence in a country's political and economic system. For example,
fear of inflation in Japan  and Germany accounts for  the  unwillingness of
those countries  to stimulate their economies in order to achieve more rapid
economic growth. The magnitude of inflation seen in many developing coun-
tries  is incomprehensible to most people in the industrial world. During the
period 1980-1988, inflation increased in Argentina by 290.5 percent,  in Bra-
zil by 188.7  percent, in Bolivia by 482.8 percent, in Peru by 119.1 percent,
and in Israel by 136.6 percent.20 By the end of the 1980s, inflation in Brazil
was  1000 percent per annum.
    In highly inflationary environments, it is difficult for firms to plan for the
future and run profitable operations. Companies must change prices  almost
daily in order to maintain a sufficient cash flow to replace inventory and keep
the firm  operating. Accurately forecasting inflation is difficult, so firms end
up underpricing or overpricing products, which results in a shortage  of cash
flow or a price that is too high to maintain market share.
    Inflation of the magnitude seen in Bolivia, Argentina, or Brazil also cre-
ates  problems for firms that deal in international markets.  If the exchange
rate depreciates at the same pace as inflation, then the prices that foreigners
pay for exports  of the inflationary country will not really change. But if the
exchange rate does not change as much as inflation is forcing companies to
raise their prices, the local companies will soon find that they cannot compete
in world markets.
    Inflation causes political destabilization. If the government tries to con-
trol it by controlling wages, the real income of the population declines and
frustration sets in. If the government decides to do nothing, the country risks
having the economy deteriorate to the point that real incomes fall anyway.
To institute fiscal rigor when the government is in a fragile position in the
first place is very difficult

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